NK seems to be upping tensions, and while backed by Russia it seems, it could get messy. Think they might go to war soon?
North Korea's Increasing Tensions
- Thread starter Demon_Skeith
- Start date
Hopefully, North Korea does not attack other countries.
This is my fear.
If it comes to war North Korea won't be able to actually win and conquer South Korea. Their Military tech is too far behind and even with Putin's backing it won't be enough. Kim is just all bark and no bite.
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Isn't their artillery outdated though?
Yes and their Artillery can easily be destroyed with JDAM or GBUs dropped from high altitudes from way outside the artillery's range.
Towed artillery tech hasn't exactly changed since decades. And unlike the west they have an active industry to mass produce the shells.
SK would run out of JDAMs long before NK runs out of artillery.
Modern Artillery uses digital fire-control system and much more accurate and with better firing rate, and can use guided artillery shell such as Excalibur. NK does not have this kind of artillery.
If US and UK are swift in sending their fighters from their Super Carriers too to bomb NK's Artillery NK won't have enough artillery or enough time to do any significant damage with it. One 2000lb JDAM or GBU can easily destroy many Artilleries, and modern fighters can drop many of them at once in one bombing run. And if Kim thinks he can actually level Seoul with just his artillery he would have done so a long time ago I think.
Here is a good read on it Between Rhetoric and Reality:
Operational factors such as range, rates of fire, supply, and exposure to airstrikes or counter battery fire, could all act to reduce casualties significantly, even before one takes into account the ROK’s considerable abilities to evacuate civilians or provide deep shelters in Seoul.
Three Primary Factors
- Range – Only about 1/3 of Seoul is presently in range from artillery along a DMZ trace. The northern reaches of Seoul within artillery range have much lower population densities than Seoul proper;
- Numbers – Even though KPA has a tremendous number of artillery pieces, only a certain number are emplaced to range Seoul. KPA can’t emplace every weapon near Seoul or the rest of North Korea’s expansive border would be unguarded and even more vulnerable. Moreover, an artillery tube immediately reveals its location as soon as it fires. Therefore only about two-thirds of artillery will open fire at a time. The rest are trying to remain hidden;
- Protection – Artillery shelters for twenty million people exist in the greater Seoul metropolitan area. After the initial surprise has worn off, there simply won’t be large numbers of exposed people. Even during the initial attack the vast majority of people will either be at work, at home, or in transit. Few people will be standing in the middle of an open field with no protection whatsoever available anywhere nearby.
- Dud rate – the only numbers available—to the DPRK as well as the rest of the world—indicate a dud rate of twenty-five percent. It’s like immediately taking every fourth artillery tube away.
- Counter-battery fires – shortly after the KPA artillery begins firing, and the political decision has been made, South Korean artillery, Air Forces, and others will begin destroying artillery at a historical rate of 1% per hour. South Korea has had approximately 50 years to figure out where North Korean artillery tubes are emplaced using every sense available to man and machine.
- Logistics – in order to move south from the DMZ trace and place the rest of Seoul at risk, KPA must expose approximately 2,500 thin-skinned vehicles each day along three well-defined transportation corridors. Otherwise, KPA grinds to an almost immediate halt without a way to transport fuel, ammunition and spare parts needed to continue moving south. Alternatively, KPA can scavenge from ROK fuel stores and depots if they have not been previously destroyed.
Using all this artillery would also pose a real dilemma for Kin Jong-un and his generals. If they bombard Seoul, how are they going to support their other forces or degrade the considerable (and technologically superior) ROK and US ground forces south of the DMZ?
An this:
Could North Korea Annihilate Seoul with Its Artillery?
Fears that Seoul could become a “sea of fire” has prevented strong military action against Pyongyang.
nationalinterest.org
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Modern Artillery uses digital fire-control system and much more accurate and with better firing rate, and can use guided artillery shell such as Excalibur. NK does not have this kind of artillery.
If US and UK are swift in sending their fighters from their Super Carriers too to bomb NK's Artillery NK won't have enough artillery or enough time to do any significant damage with it. One 2000lb JDAM or GBU can easily destroy many Artilleries, and modern fighters can drop many of them at once in one bombing run. And if Kim thinks he can actually level Seoul with just his artillery he would have done so a long time ago I think.
Here is a good read on it Between Rhetoric and Reality:
Operational factors such as range, rates of fire, supply, and exposure to airstrikes or counter battery fire, could all act to reduce casualties significantly, even before one takes into account the ROK’s considerable abilities to evacuate civilians or provide deep shelters in Seoul.
Three Primary Factors
Three Secondary Factors
- Range – Only about 1/3 of Seoul is presently in range from artillery along a DMZ trace. The northern reaches of Seoul within artillery range have much lower population densities than Seoul proper;
- Numbers – Even though KPA has a tremendous number of artillery pieces, only a certain number are emplaced to range Seoul. KPA can’t emplace every weapon near Seoul or the rest of North Korea’s expansive border would be unguarded and even more vulnerable. Moreover, an artillery tube immediately reveals its location as soon as it fires. Therefore only about two-thirds of artillery will open fire at a time. The rest are trying to remain hidden;
- Protection – Artillery shelters for twenty million people exist in the greater Seoul metropolitan area. After the initial surprise has worn off, there simply won’t be large numbers of exposed people. Even during the initial attack the vast majority of people will either be at work, at home, or in transit. Few people will be standing in the middle of an open field with no protection whatsoever available anywhere nearby.
- Dud rate – the only numbers available—to the DPRK as well as the rest of the world—indicate a dud rate of twenty-five percent. It’s like immediately taking every fourth artillery tube away.
- Counter-battery fires – shortly after the KPA artillery begins firing, and the political decision has been made, South Korean artillery, Air Forces, and others will begin destroying artillery at a historical rate of 1% per hour. South Korea has had approximately 50 years to figure out where North Korean artillery tubes are emplaced using every sense available to man and machine.
- Logistics – in order to move south from the DMZ trace and place the rest of Seoul at risk, KPA must expose approximately 2,500 thin-skinned vehicles each day along three well-defined transportation corridors. Otherwise, KPA grinds to an almost immediate halt without a way to transport fuel, ammunition and spare parts needed to continue moving south. Alternatively, KPA can scavenge from ROK fuel stores and depots if they have not been previously destroyed.
Using all this artillery would also pose a real dilemma for Kin Jong-un and his generals. If they bombard Seoul, how are they going to support their other forces or degrade the considerable (and technologically superior) ROK and US ground forces south of the DMZ?
An this:
Could North Korea Annihilate Seoul with Its Artillery?
Fears that Seoul could become a “sea of fire” has prevented strong military action against Pyongyang.
You're arguing from the point of view of NK winning the war which is not something I said would happen. I said NK has enough dumb artillery to cause unacceptable level of devestation to seoul which that report agrees with but will ultimately obviously lose without even crossing the DMZ.
"The short answer is they can’t; but they can kill many tens of thousands of people, start a larger war and cause a tremendous amount of damage before ultimately losing their regime"
Also that smart tech won't count for shit if NKs are aiming indiscriminately at a city.
You said
I am not saying you are wrong with the destruction thing, Yes they can definitely kill tens of thousands of people and cause a lot of destruction and damage to Seoul and will start a larger war with just Artillery fire but my main point is they won't be able to level Seoul (level Seoul to me means complete destruction of all Seoul) with just Artillery even if NKs are aiming indiscriminately at the city, mainly because of the Range of their artillery amongst other things. The report also said "..but even with these worst case assumptions, there is nowhere near the “tens of thousands of shells turning Seoul into a sea of fire”."
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You said
I am not saying you are wrong with the destruction thing, Yes they can definitely kill tens of thousands of people and cause a lot of destruction and damage to Seoul and will start a larger war with just Artillery fire but my main point is they won't be able to level Seoul (level Seoul to me means complete destruction of all Seoul) with just Artillery even if NKs are aiming indiscriminately at the city, mainly because of the Range of their artillery amongst other things. The report also said "..but even with these worst case assumptions, there is nowhere near the “tens of thousands of shells turning Seoul into a sea of fire”."
Yeah 82k dead is good enough for me to call it leveling Seoul. Pedantry won't change anyone's minds.
Never tried to change yours in the first place lol. And You were the one that quoted and responded to my post first lol
You are being too defensive. I am just saying what I think on the matter, based on the stuff I know, that's all.
It's sad that in this advanced & modern age, humans are getting dumbed down & more narcissistic. I hope we don't go to war because what people don't realize is war affects the entire Earth. Even if it's not directly.